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澳门六合彩历史记录/Mainstreet Poll: Harris and Trump in Statistical Tie

Voters preparing to cast their ballots

Voters preparing to cast their ballots


By joshua glanzer | 7/30/2024

A new national survey by 澳门六合彩历史记录 and Mainstreet Research USA reveals that U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris and former U.S. President Donald Trump are in a statistical tie in a 2024 presidential election matchup. The poll also highlights complex views on democracy among American voters.

Harris and Trump are both at 46% among all voters in the latest 澳门六合彩历史记录 Political Communication and Public Opinion Research Lab ( ) and Mainstreet Research USA poll. Diving into key demographic groups reveals striking differences:

  • Harris holds a strong lead among women with 49% compared to Trump鈥檚 42%
  • Among Black voters, Harris commands a significant advantage at 67%, while Trump trails at 22%
  • In the Hispanic demographic, Harris secures 54% support, leaving Trump with 37%.
  • Trump leads with 18 to 35-year-old voters, 45% to 36%
  • When Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. is included, Harris has a 1% lead among all voters, which is within the margin of error

鈥淲hile voters may be responding to the prospect of a new candidate in these results, they are also not sure what the Harris campaign messaging is,鈥 said Luzmarina Garcia Ph.D., assistant professor of political science at 澳门六合彩历史记录. 鈥淏ut the lead up to the election will clarify that picture.鈥

U.S. Sen. J.D. Vance: No Honeymoon Bounce from Voters

Trump鈥檚 vice president selection, U.S. Sen. J.D. Vance, has a polarized favorability rating among all voters according to the poll, with 23% viewing him 鈥渟trongly favorably鈥 and 34% 鈥渟trongly unfavorably.鈥 Trump sits at 33% strongly favorable and 16% somewhat favorable. Vance is most favored by white, non-college graduates and Trump supporters, while he faces significant dislike from Black voters, women and Harris supporters.

鈥淰ance鈥檚 approval ratings are significantly trailing President Trump鈥檚,鈥 said Kevin Wagner, Ph.D., professor of political science and co-director of the PolCom Lab. 鈥淚t鈥檚 early, but instead of lifting the ticket, the selection of Vance as his vice president may be a drag on Trump鈥檚 reelection chances.鈥

Voters Signal Mixed Views on U.S. Democracy

The survey explored voters鈥 opinions on democracy in the United States. Overall, 67% of all voters reported being 鈥渧ery satisfied鈥 (39%) or 鈥渟omewhat satisfied鈥 (28%) with how democracy functions in the U.S. Satisfaction levels were similar among demographic groups, with 66% of Black voters and 67% of Hispanic voters expressing satisfaction. When asked whether democracy is the best system of government, 58% of all voters 鈥渟trongly agreed,鈥 while 21% reported that they 鈥渟omewhat agreed.鈥

Notably, there were significant differences across age groups, with 36% of voters aged 18 to 49 who 鈥渟trongly agreed鈥 that democracy is the best system compared to 75% of those aged 50 and older. Similarly, there is a significant gap between white college graduates and non-college graduates in their views on democracy: 73% of white college graduates 鈥渟trongly agreed鈥 that democracy is the best system, compared to 56% of white non-college graduates.

鈥淭hese results reveal a complex picture of Americans鈥 views on democracy,鈥 said Dukhong Kim, Ph.D., associate professor of political science at 澳门六合彩历史记录. 鈥淲hile a majority express satisfaction with the democratic system, there鈥檚 a clear generational divide in the strength of belief in democracy as the best form of government. This could have significant implications for the future of American politics and governance.鈥

Emotions Running High;聽So Is聽Happiness聽(For聽Some)

The poll assessed life satisfaction among聽all聽voters, revealing that 67% reported being 鈥渧ery happy鈥 or 鈥渜uite happy鈥 with their current lives. Although聽in line with聽historical trends,聽happiness has been represented by a U-shaped curve, with youngest and oldest adults the happiest with a dip in happiness during mid-life. Older voters (65+) are significantly happier (73%) than other age groups, including 18 to 35-year-olds (65%). By demographic categories, happiness varied:

  • Black voters (75%)
  • White, college-educated (71%)
  • White,聽non-college educated (64%)聽
  • Hispanic voters (63%)

The biggest difference in happiness聽is evident聽in political affiliation and intended 2024 votes:

  • 80% of Democratic voters report being happy
    • 80%聽of voters聽who聽intend聽to vote for Harris report being happy
  • 61% of Republicans voters report being happy
    • 57% percent of voters with an intention to vote for Trump report being happy

This聽poll also聽reveals a complex emotional landscape regarding Biden dropping out of the聽presidential race and聽Harris聽being the presumptive nominee聽with 聽47% of聽voters聽reporting聽positive emotions, such as joy, pride and聽excitement聽when thinking about this change in party leadership,聽and聽32% of voters聽expressing聽negative emotions like fear,聽sadness聽and anger when they considered the change.

Among Democrats, 72% felt positively with excitement being the predominant emotion, compared to 17% who felt negatively. Conversely, 20% of Republican voters said they felt positive emotion when thinking about the shift at the top of the Democratic ticket,聽with 53% reporting negative feelings; with fear being the most prevalent emotion (32%).

鈥淎s the data show, emotions play a pivotal role in shaping voter behavior and engagement,鈥澛爏aid Carol Bishop Mills, Ph.D., professor of communication and co-director of the PolCom聽Lab.聽鈥淭he significant positive sentiment among Democrats聽and minority voters聽toward Harris鈥櫬燾andidacy reverses聽some聽feelings of frustration and disconnectedness with Biden鈥檚 candidacy, while the heightened negative emotions among Republicans highlight the polarized nature of the current political climate. Understanding these emotional undercurrents is essential for developing effective, nuanced聽campaign strategies as we approach the 2024 election.鈥

The analysis in this report is based on a survey conducted Friday, July 26 and Saturday, July 27, among a sample of 997 registered voters聽living in the U.S. The survey was conducted in English and Spanish via interactive voice response and an online panel, representing the U.S. voting population. Weights were applied for gender, race, education and past vote. Party identification was determined by asking respondents which party they most identify with, as聽some聽states do not have voter registration by party. While the online component means a precise margin of error cannot be assigned, a poll of this size typically has a margin of error of +/- 3.1% at the 95% confidence level,聽with higher margins for subsamples.聽The survey provides insights into current voter attitudes and preferences in late July, contributing to understanding the political landscape ahead of upcoming elections. For full methodologies, visit聽 .聽For the poll鈥檚 full report, visit聽 .

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